© 2016 Osteoarthritis Research Society International Purpose To explore the association of baseline trabecular bone structure with incident tibiofemoral (TF) osteoarthritis (OA) and with increase in joint space narrowing (JSN) score. Methods The Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) includes subjects with or at risk for knee OA. Knee radiographs were scored for Kellgren–Lawrence (KL) grade and JSN at baseline, 30, 60 and 84 months. Knees (KL ≤ 1) at baseline were assessed for incident OA (KL ≥ 2) and increases in JSN score. For each knee image at baseline, a variance orientation transform method (VOT) was applied to subchondral tibial bone regions of medial and lateral compartments. Seventeen fractal parameters were calculated per region. Associations of each parameter with OA incidence and with medial and lateral JSN increases were explored using logistic regression. Analyses were stratified by digitized film (DF) vs computer radiography (CR) and adjusted for confounders. Results Of 894 knees with CR and 1158 knees with DF, 195 (22%) and 303 (26%) developed incident OA. Higher medial bone roughness was associated with increased odds of OA incidence at 60 and 84 months and also, medial and lateral JSN increases (primarily vertical). Lower medial and lateral anisotropy was associated with increased odds of medial and lateral JSN increase. Compared to DF, CR had more associations and also, similar results at overlapping scales. Conclusion Baseline trabecular bone texture was associated with incident radiographic OA and increase of JSN scores independently of risk factors for knee OA. Higher roughness and lower anisotropy were associated with increased odds for radiographic OA change.