Long terms trends in CD4+ cell counts, CD8+ cell counts, and the CD4+ :  CD8+ ratio.

Academic Article


  • OBJECTIVE: Model trajectories of CD4+ and CD8+ cell counts after starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) and use the model to predict trends in these counts and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio. DESIGN: Cohort study of antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive adults who started ART after 1997 (ART Cohort Collaboration) with more than 6 months of follow-up data. METHODS: We jointly estimated CD4+ and CD8+ cell count trends and their correlation using a bivariate random effects model, with linear splines describing their population trends, and predicted the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio trend from this model. We assessed whether CD4+ and CD8+ cell count trends and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio trend varied according to CD4+ cell count at start of ART (baseline), and, whether these trends differed in patients with and without virological failure more than 6 months after starting ART. RESULTS: A total of 39 979 patients were included (median follow-up was 53 months). Among patients with baseline CD4+ cell count at least 50 cells/μl, predicted mean CD8+ cell counts continued to decrease between 3 and 15 years post-ART, partly driving increases in the predicted mean CD4+ : CD8+ ratio. During 15 years of follow-up, normalization of the predicted mean CD4+ : CD8+ ratio (to >1) was only observed among patients with baseline CD4+ cell count at least 200 cells/μl. A higher baseline CD4+ cell count predicted a shorter time to normalization. CONCLUSION: Declines in CD8+ cell count and increases in CD4+ : CD8+ ratio occurred up to 15 years after starting ART. The likelihood of normalization of the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio is strongly related to baseline CD4+ cell count.
  • Published In

  • AIDS  Journal
  • Keywords

  • Adolescent, Adult, Anti-Retroviral Agents, CD4 Lymphocyte Count, CD4-CD8 Ratio, CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes, CD8-Positive T-Lymphocytes, Cohort Studies, Female, Follow-Up Studies, HIV Infections, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Viral Load
  • Digital Object Identifier (doi)

    Author List

  • Hughes RA; May MT; Tilling K; Taylor N; Wittkop L; Reiss P; Gill J; Schommers P; Costagliola D; Guest JL
  • Start Page

  • 1361
  • End Page

  • 1367
  • Volume

  • 32
  • Issue

  • 10