Estimated GFR and Mortality in Older Men: Are All eGFR Formulae Equal?

Academic Article


  • © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel. Recently, the first estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) formula specifically developed for community-dwelling older adults, the Berlin Initiative Study Equation 2 (BIS2), was reported. To date, however, no study has examined the performance of the BIS2 to predict death in older adults as compared to equations used clinically and in research. Methods: We prospectively followed 2,994 community-dwelling men (age 76.4 ± 5.6) enrolled in the MrOS Sleep Study. We calculated baseline eGFR from serum creatinine and cystatin-C using the BIS2, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology (CKD-EPIcr,cysc), CKD-EPIcysc and CKD-EPIcr equations. Analyses included Cox-proportional hazards regression and net reclassification improvement (NRI) for the outcomes of all-cause and cardiovascular death. Results: Follow-up time was 7.3 ± 1.9 years. By BIS2, 42 and 11% had eGFR <60 and <45, respectively, compared to CKD-EPIcr (23 and 6%), CKD-EPIcysc (36 and 13%) and CKD-EPIcr,cysc (28 and 8%). BIS2 eGFR <45 was associated with twofold higher rate of all-cause mortality when compared to eGFR ≥ 75 after multivariate adjustment (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.8). Results were similar for CKD-EPIcr,cysc <45 (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.6-2.7) and CKD-EPIcysc <45 (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.7) and weaker for CKD-EPIcr <45 (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-2.0). In NRI analyses, when compared to CKD-EPIcr,cysc, both BIS2 and CKD-EPIcr equations more often misclassified participants with respect to mortality. We found similar results for cardiovascular death. Conclusion: The BIS2 did not outperform and the CKD-EPIcr was inferior to the cystatin C-based CKD-EPI equations to predict death in this cohort of older men. Thus, the cystatin C-based CKD-EPI equations are the formulae of choice to predict death in community-dwelling older men.
  • Published In

    Digital Object Identifier (doi)

    Author List

  • Canales MT; Blackwell T; Ishani A; Taylor BC; Hart A; Barrett-Connor E; Lewis C; Beyth RJ; Stone K; Ensrud KE
  • Start Page

  • 325
  • End Page

  • 333
  • Volume

  • 43
  • Issue

  • 5