Background: Expectancies demonstrate cross-sectional associations with e-cigarette use, but the prospective relationships between expectancies and e-cigarette use are unknown. This study examined the longitudinal associations of expectancies with e-cigarette use among hospitalized tobacco cigarette smokers. Methods: E-cigarette expectancies (e-cigarette-specific Brief Smoking Consequences Questionnaire- Adult [BSCQ-A]), tobacco cigarette expectancies (tobacco-specific BSCQ-A), and number of days used e-cigarettes in the past 30 days were assessed at baseline hospitalization, 6-months posthospitalization, and 12-months post-hospitalization among 978 hospitalized tobacco cigarette smokers. Expectancy difference scores (e-cigarette-specific expectancies minus tobacco-specific expectancies) were computed for each of the 10 BSCQ-A scales. Cross-lagged panel models tested the relationships between expectancy difference scores and number of days used e-cigarettes in the past 30 days for each of the 10 BSCQ-A scales. Results: Though some models revealed partial associations between expectancies and e-cigarette use, only one yielded results consistent with hypotheses. Greater e-cigarette use at baseline predicted greater expectancies that e-cigarettes taste pleasant as compared to tobacco cigarettes at 6 months, which then predicted greater e-cigarette use at 12 months. To a lesser degree greater expectancies that e-cigarettes taste pleasant as compared to tobacco cigarettes at baseline predicted greater e-cigarette use at 6 months, which then predicted greater expectancies that e-cigarettes taste pleasant as compared to tobacco cigarettes at 12 months. Conclusions: Expectancies that e-cigarettes provide similar or more pleasant taste sensations as compared to tobacco cigarettes may be both a cause and consequence of e-cigarette use. Focusing on the taste experience may prove most effective in modifying e-cigarette use behavior. Implications: The current study offers the first longitudinal examination of expectancies and e-cigarette use. Results suggest expectancies that e-cigarettes provide similar or more pleasant taste sensations relative to tobacco cigarettes are both a cause and consequence of e-cigarette use. Efforts that focus on the e-cigarette taste experience may prove most effective in modifying e-cigarette use behavior.
