BACKGROUND: African Americans have the highest rates of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infection in the United States and also high reinfection rates. The primary objective of this study was to develop a Bayesian model to predict the probability of CT reinfection in African American women using immunogenetic data. METHODS: We analyzed data from a cohort of CT-infected African American women enrolled at the time they returned to a clinic in Birmingham, AL, for the treatment of a positive routine CT test result. We modeled the probability of CT reinfection within 6 months after treatment using logistic regression in a Bayesian framework. Predictors of interest were presence or absence of an HLA-DQB1*06 allele and CT-specific CD4+ IFN-γ response, both of which we had previously reported were independently associated with CT reinfection risk. RESULTS: Among 99 participants evaluated, the probability of reinfection for those with a CT-specific CD4+ IFN-γ response and no HLA-DQB1*06 alleles was 14.1% (95% credible interval [CI], 3.0%-45.0%), whereas the probability of reinfection for those without a CT-specific CD4+ IFN-γ response and at least one HLA-DQB1*06 allele was 61.5% (95% CI, 23.1%-89.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Our model demonstrated that presence or absence of an HLA-DQB1*06 allele and CT-specific CD4+ IFN-γ response can have an impact on the predictive probability of CT reinfection in African American women.