Impact of the lung allocation score on survival beyond 1 year

Academic Article

Abstract

  • © 2014 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons. Implementation of the lung allocation score (LAS) in 2005 led to transplantation of older and sicker patients without altering 1-year survival. However, long-term survival has not been assessed and emphasizing the 1-year survival metric may actually sustain 1-year survival while not reflecting worsening longer-term survival. Therefore, we assessed overall and conditional 1-year survival; and the effect of crossing the 1-year threshold on hazard of death in three temporal cohorts: historical (1995-2000), pre-LAS (2001-2005) and post-LAS (2005-2010). One-year survival post-LAS remained similar to pre-LAS (83.1% vs. 82.1%) and better than historical controls (75%). Overall survival in the pre-and post-LAS cohorts was also similar. However, long-term survival among patients surviving beyond 1 year was worse than pre-LAS and similar to historical controls. Also, the hazard of death increased significantly in months 13 (1.44, 95% CI 1.10-1.87) and 14 (1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87) post-LAS but not in the other cohorts. While implementation of the LAS has not reduced overall survival, decreased survival among patients surviving beyond 1 year in the post-LAS cohort and the increased mortality occurring immediately after 1 year suggest a potential negative long-term effect of the LAS and an unintended consequence of increased emphasis on the 1-year survival metric.
  • Published In

    Digital Object Identifier (doi)

    Pubmed Id

  • 13832325
  • Author List

  • Maxwell BG; Levitt JE; Goldstein BA; Mooney JJ; Nicolls MR; Zamora M; Valentine V; Weill D; Dhillon GS
  • Start Page

  • 2288
  • End Page

  • 2294
  • Volume

  • 14
  • Issue

  • 10